العثور على قذيفة هاون في الطريق الجديدة وحوري يعلن أنه كان متوجها إلى المنطقة..وكرتونة أوراق في عبرا

True, but knowing that assassinations on M14 figures would only increase internal pressure on M8, then why would M8 forces pursue such assassination attempts? The Syrian regime is not what it used to be and already has its hands full at home. Meanwhile Hezbollah is already facing increased internal pressure on its arms, and the last thing it seeks is more pressure. We have other forces in Lebanon that are neither M8 and M14, and I think they have the most to gain out of chaos.

@greatpierro,

When an assassination attempt occurs, the question we must ask is who benefits? And if the idea among M14ers that M8 would benefit by striking "fear" among its opponents, I don't believe that is very factual. So far the assassinations have only energized the M14 camp, and the politicization of the assassinations has created more anger on M8. So how has M8 benefitted from these attempts thus far? Hence why I find it questionable that they are absolutely behind them.

gcb1 : just look at the past: each time a lebanese politician voiced against syria he got killed and always the same scenario: a car bomb mostly.
even aoun said that all the lebanese killed in the past were killed by syria ( read his speech in front the US senate) and he pointed his finger in the same direction for hariri.

why would syria change? still those against syria get killed. M8 getting weakened by internal pressure? syria doesn t care they are its pawns here!
syria benefits from chaos in lebanon....

@peace

I believe circumstances are different today, especially with regards to Syria. When the Syrian regime can't even protect its intelligence headquarters, that is a clear sign they are not who they used to be. The whole Samaha case, while shameful, is still confusing, with lots of questions unanswered. That is why I won't base some conclusions on the Samaha case until the investigation is over.

Your claim that Syria benefits from Lebanese chaos right now is questionable. Perhaps that was the case back then (in order for it to justify its occupation of Lebanon in order to preserve stability), but today, any assassination would only fuel the anger among M14 followers and quickly blame it on the Syrian regime. As a result, more support would flow to the rebels, and this is not in the interest of the Assad. Hence why I find it odd that the Assad regime in present circumstances would or even could pull off such a feat.

gcb1: if you look to history and recent fall of dictatorships, what did they all have in common?

the belief that they were superior and that they would crush the rebellions believing the majority of the people were on their side!
syria still denies that they are losing and will fall, they still believe they are the strongest. they are still arrogant and defying.
so why would their policy towards lebanon change? they are still believing they are ruling and that everything is under control....

on the other hand gcb1, israel also benefits from chaos in lebanon and their main "ally" for that is hezbollah. till hezbi are present lebanon will remain divided and that benefits israelis economical interests. they cannot stand having a country thriving next to their door and taking them markets.
but i believe that if israel was behind the assassinations they would target all sides.

I do not consider Syria a third-party. In my opinion it belongs to the M8 camp.