جعجع رأى أن المبادرة العربية لن تنجح: على الحكومة أن تستقيل قبل أن تنتهي بكارثة

The fall of the regime is inevitable...I agree.
How long will it take...months, a year, a decade...we don't know..
Then what!

Scenario 1
Bashar remains in power but is greatly diminished. He has no more international respect and credibility and sanctions will not be lifted. On the Lebanese scene, he will reinforce Hezbollah (his ally) to have a stronger aalied country by his side: Lebanon. He will be in strong need of partners and will use us as a platform and will start stealing us again like during the Lahoud era.

Scenario 2
Bashar falls. Hezbollah is isolated, and attempts a coup to take power by force. It has no other alternative anymore. It's their only way to survive.

Scenario 3
Bashar is on the verge of falling, so Hezbollah triggers a war with Israel in order to pull out the attention from Syria.

I don not see a scenario with a good outcome...

@thepatriot: it's time to wake up my child. You were only having a confusing dream. Drink your milk and head to school. Oh, and don;t forget to pray and ask for God's guidance, It is always a good thing. No?

the problem is a bit deeper than that:
- in all cases, worst case scenario for syria is only a weekened assad regime, and at best, the regime will fall. whatever it is going to be, it does not matter much.
- Hizbullah has three options:
option1: lay down their weapons. and this would be the ideal situation.
option2: initiate a war with israel which will lead to total destruction of the country, and here we will have a weakened hizb, thus hopefully recoverable.
option3: hizb might try to takeover the country. but if such thing occurs, there will be no Lebanon anymore.

just imagine what will be done to our banking system, economy, ....

Bashar stays or Bashar goes, one thing is for certain: Hezbollah will do whatever Iran tells them to do...that's it. Unfortunately, our country is at the mercy of Tehran's directives. Hezbollah is nothing more than an Iranian army with Lebanese passports. How did this happen...how did we allow our country to get hijacked like this? It's a trajedy. Unfortunately, the only solution is going to be partition...not becasue we want it but because it's the only way to live without constant war. The southern suburbs of Beirut - into the south will be Hezbollah's, the east and north will be Christian and other factions like the Druze, etc will have pockets of the mountains. Such a tragedy but nothing else seems like it will work long term. The Shia community has Hezbollah's boot on its neck even though not all of the community supports them in reality.

Geagea is speaking the obvious truth as well. The Assad Regime is in a no win situation. Should it persist with attempting to regain control of the country through killing the dissidents, the backlash of the people and the eventual involvement of the international community will take the regime down. On the other hand, should the Assad Regime agree in any degree to the reforms that are demanded, then it will have had a hand in taking itself out of power and probably before the ICC or other international criminal tribunal.

The Assad Regime is therefore on its way out. To the extent that Hezbollah and the FPM seek to hold on to this link to their financial patrons in Iran, they will be dragged down with the Assad Regime. Since Hezbollah effectively controls Lebanon and its government, Lebanon too will go down, unless Lebanon can be detached from Hezbollah and the FPM.

This is Geagea's logic in saying that the government's resignation is necessary for Lebanon to survive.

@sardab
It's good to know that the mentally challenged are represented on Naharnet.
Thank you for your wonderful post plenty of rich arguments, clever remarks, and deepest thoughts.

@lebanane
you fail to realize there will be no Lebanon left if what is left of it is decimated, and by that I mean the banking system and the economy.
not even partition can be is this case....

@geha
Our conclusions do not defer much.
I just don't see why the Hezb would lay down it's weapons. They would have no reason to do so.
Without their weapons, they can ONLY be weaker whatever the circumstances...

@Lebnane
The Hezb won't let you go. You work, you pay electricity, you pay taxes, they watch, get money from syria, from Iran, have their own sources of financing (telecoms/schooling/drugs/...) and benefit from you. Why should they let you go?
Their employees are in our administrations by thousands, paid by taxpayers like you and I while they do nothing!
You don't need them, but they need you Lebnane!

@Bigdig
I guess you people will have to kill us all to shut us up!
You've done a pretty good job so far, but I am sorry I must tell you cannot prevent us ALL from talking! You make me like Geagea... when I didn't use to.
Thank you & ur people crapdigger.

a big hurrah to bigdig and sardab who enlightnened us with their comments full of arguments and clever remarks...
typical speech of M8 supporters full of intelligence and clever thoughts!

“I am a regular citizen and I do not feel as if I have a responsible state looking after my wellbeing
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If this is the case me and my colleagues are ready to secretly organize a funding to mr Geagea so he can enjoy his life as a regular citizen..This is what we want we want him to live in dignity and happiness...no matter what this cost i think it's a national duty to make him have a decent welfare..
Dr i respect you for your move and i hope you encourage other sectarian politician to join you...
Long live Geagea Long Live Geagea the mo0st beloved Ex Politician on Earth
The second step is having kids..
Long live Geagea the regular citizen of Lebanon
MrBrain

Wait a minute......Aoun said it was all over in Syria. He said ASSad is stronger than ever. Could it be that only one of these guys is telling the truth?

If Aoun is telling the truth, why are people being killed everyday?

at least mrbrain has a brain in his pseudo as it seems he lacks it elsewhere....

Gabby, ask yourself who could be telling the truth. As far as you are concerned, my friend, it has been one month past your truth that ASSad will fall one month ago. Talking about someone with sound judgment! Get together with peace, thepatriot and the traitor (Geagea, of course) and play tarneeb.

@Meeshow
yaaaa....zaki!
Let's see about your Master Meeshow Aoun and his sound jugement...well...everything should be over in Syria by next Tuesday right??
pffff..