S. Sudan Seizure of Key Oilfield Raises Questions
Questions are being raised in Sudan over how easily South Sudanese forces marched in and seized Khartoum's main oilfield, worsening an economy already mired in crisis.
Analysts say the South's invasion of the Heglig area last Tuesday has put Defense Minister Abdelrahim Mohammed Hussein under scrutiny.
"There is a growing criticism of Abdelrahim," an international analyst said, declining to be named. "To me it's absolutely absurd that they couldn't protect their main oilfield... it's inexcusable."
Hussein is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against civilians in Sudan's western region of Darfur several years ago.
Al-Tayib Z. al-Abdin, a supervisor in the University of Khartoum's political science department, said the ease with which South Sudan took Heglig "is one of the big questions."
"They took it just like that," he said.
The area along the disputed southern border had already been attacked during earlier clashes that began on March 26.
Renewed fighting over the past week, which started with waves of aerial bombardment of the South, is the most serious since last July when South Sudan separated after an overwhelming "yes" vote under a peace deal that ended 22 years of civil war.
When the South became independent Khartoum lost about 75 percent of its oil production and billions of dollars in revenue, leaving the economy reeling and Heglig as its main remaining oil center.
The region accounted for roughly half of national oil output but since Tuesday's attack production has stopped, said Ahmed Haroun, the governor of surrounding South Kordofan state.
Heglig is now at risk of either deliberate or combat-related damage, one foreign diplomat said.
"According to the information that we have, they have positioned their tanks right beside the oil facilities, so if the Sudanese bomb they will also destroy those facilities," said the diplomat, requesting anonymity.
On Sunday Sudan denied the South's charge that it was bombing the Heglig area "indiscriminately" and warned the South against damaging oil facilities there.
"If they destroy that, I think Sudan will try to avenge this and may try to also destroy the oilfields in Southern Sudan," Abdin said.
South Sudan disputes that Heglig is part of the north's territory.
Key among unresolved issues between north and South has been a dispute over oil fees, which led the Juba government in January to shut its crude production after Khartoum began seizing Southern oil in lieu of compensation.
Landlocked South Sudan was using a northern pipeline and port to export its crude, but the two sides could not agree on how much Juba should pay for the trans-shipment.
Common sense says neither side would have an interest in damaging the oil infrastructure, the analyst said, unless the South is trying "to level the situation" after stopping the flow of its own oil which accounted for 98 percent of revenue.
The diplomat said it will be "very difficult" for Sudan to restart production in Heglig.
"So this war will be a more negative impact on the Sudanese economy", he said.
Before separation Southern oil represented more than a third of Khartoum's revenues and its largest source of hard currency, leaving the government struggling for alternatives since then.
Inflation has risen month after month, exceeding 20 percent, and Sudan's currency is plunging in value.
University of Khartoum economist Mohammed Eljack Ahmed said that after South Sudan occupied Heglig the black market exchange rate jumped from about 5.5 pounds to 6.1 pounds for one U.S. dollar -- more than double the official rate.
"Some people anticipate that the exchange rate might actually reach about seven," Eljack said.
Analysts say the bankrupt nation could turn to Arab and Muslim nations for financial help.
The border war could last weeks, and in the meantime some people have called for the defense minister's resignation, Abdin said.
"He's one of the least efficient ministers in the government," the professor added.
But Hussein is protected by President Omar al-Bashir, who is also wanted by the ICC for alleged crimes in Darfur, the international analyst said.
"So I don't think very much will happen," he said.
He and Abdin suggested Sudan's military may be over-stretched. It was already battling insurgents in South Kordofan state, faces a smaller uprising in Blue Nile, and continues to have a presence in Darfur.
"How can you open three or four fronts at one time?" asked Abdin.
Source: Agence France Presse
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