Analysts: Arab Plan Signals End of Assad Era
The Arab League's latest roadmap for an end to the crisis in Syria signals that regional states see the Assad era drawing to a close, although it could yet be a slow process, analysts said Monday.
"I think the Arab League yesterday unexpectedly pulled the rabbit out of the hat," said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center.
"The political track that they suggested is highly significant ... It's effectively signaling that (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad has to step down," he said.
The 22-member Arab League, which in December sent a team of observers to unrest-swept Syria, on Sunday asked the United Nations to support a new plan for ending the bloodshed.
Damascus swiftly dismissed the plan, which would see Assad transferring power to his deputy and a national unity government within two months, as meddling in its internal affairs and an attack on Syrian sovereignty.
Experts say the plan, adopted unanimously at a ministerial meeting in Cairo with only Lebanon abstaining, signals that Syria's neighbors are preparing for a post-Assad era.
"They are no longer talking about the observer mission" to Syria, Shaikh said, referring to the Sudan-led team which this month released a report on its widely-criticized mission without fanfare.
"The effort should now be to rally the international community behind this plan for a post-Assad transition in Syria," Shaikh told Agence France Presse.
However, there is no guarantee that the U.N. Security Council will unite on a Syria resolution, with China and Russia refusing to condemn the regime's crackdown on a 10-month revolt.
"The Arab League will need to do a lot of very hard behind the scenes, diplomatic work including engaging in a strategic dialogue with the Russians and the Chinese," Shaikh said.
While the Arab League's call for Assad to prepare to cede power marked the first unanimous regional stand on Syria, experts said it still fell short of an unequivocal call for the embattled strongman to step down.
It was "an advanced step towards moving into the post-Assad phase, although there are currently few indicators that any real change will happen in the near future," said Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center.
"The Arab League plan is significant because it offers a third way, a solution that marks neither a complete victory for the Assad regime nor a complete victory for the protesters," Salem told AFP.
The Syria crisis, which erupted in mid-March, has left more than 5,400 people dead, according to the United Nations.
As the death toll rises without international intervention, analysts warn that the Arab blueprint may remain on the backburner for several months without any immediate change on the political scene in Damascus.
"The Syrian regime's rejection of the Arab League plan will probably translate into more bloodshed and repression, as we've seen in the past," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut.
"The Arab League has given up on hope that Assad will reform ... But it has not yet put forward a plan for Assad to sign nor asked him to vow he will step down," Khashan told AFP.
"This is the start of what will likely prove a very long process," he added. "But there is no turning back."
Source: Agence France Presse
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