As Libya Conflict Drags On, NATO Keen on Way out of Impasse
Six months after the start of the conflict in Libya, NATO believes that the resistance of Moammar Gadhafi's regime can be overcome and rebels finally get the upper hand.
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 authorized the Atlantic Alliance in March to defend Libya's civilian population from attacks by Gadhafi’s regime, which faces a popular revolt after 42 years in power.
The NATO mission that took off in early April is due to wrap up in September unless it is extended by participating states, including Britain, Canada, France, Italy and the United States, all of whom are under increasing fiscal pressure to pull back.
NATO's top Libya commander, Canada's Lieutenant General Charles Bouchard, told Agence France Presse Thursday: "The Gadhafi regime's forces continue to be weakened, both in strength and their will to fight."
"They are no longer able to launch a credible offensive," he added, expressing confidence that the conflict will be over before the mission's mandate runs out next month.
"Unified Protector", the codename for the operations in Libya, has suffered "from the start from an obvious lack of intelligence which led to unpleasant surprises", said Francois Heisbourg, special advisor to the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research think tank.
The allies, who carry out air strikes, "underestimated the ability of Gadhafi’s forces to resist and overestimated the rebels' coherence and fighting abilities", he added.
NATO also "lost a lot of time making up for" the withdrawal, after only a few days, of U.S. fighter aircraft.
Washington now provides logistical assistance, leaving mainly Paris and London in the line of fire -- a first for a NATO operation.
"Only a political solution will allow to put an end to the conflict," said Alvaro de Vasconcelos, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, who believes that Gadhafi will only fall if his aides turn against him.
"A military liberation of Tripoli would be very difficult," he said, given the rebels' divisions and checkered make-up.
Vasconcelos supported more diplomatic efforts to bring in the African Union and Arab League in view of a negotiated settlement.
"The participation of Qatar or the United Arab Emirates does not stop the NATO operation from being seen as an essentially Western initiative," Vasconcelos said.
The air strikes have also been criticized by Security Council members China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa who believe that they go beyond the U.N. mandate to protect civilians.
U.N. leader Ban Ki-moon on Thursday expressed alarm over the rising number of civilian casualties in the Libya conflict, including those inflicted in NATO air strikes.
Without specifically naming any side, Ban called on "all parties" to use "extreme caution" in the battle. Ban also stepped up calls for a political solution to the conflict.
Apart from the issue of legitimacy, the allies' budget problems are also becoming an issue.
Norway withdrew its final four F-16 fighter jets taking part in the NATO-led mission on August 1 and Italy has pulled out its aircraft carrier.
France followed suit and had its aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle return to Toulon, but said Paris would maintain operations in Libya.
NATO is adamant it has the resources to complete its mandate but there seems to be no doubt that if the conflict drags on further this will weigh on talks in September about a possible extension of the mission mandate.
Source: Agence France Presse
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